This isn’t really a case study. But let me explain to you what happened here in THIS particular situation.
ALWAYS, set a “Required” option in your Gig where the buyer HAS to upload some sort of data or file.
This helps in preventing the timer to start AUTOMATICALLY, once an order has been placed.
If the buyer fails to upload your REQUIRED info/item after placing an order, then you wouldn’t have to worry about the timer running out on you.
Secondly, DO USE the “Nudge Buyer” button. I see that you DID use it, but I hope you have used it sooner than later in this particular order.
Because you can create a ticket with Customer Support and they will see that you indeed “NUDGED” the buyer and due to his/her unresponsiveness this delivery ran late. So you would be in the clear of any fault.
Hope I was able to shed some light into this.